Post-Mortem of the 2012 Election

I was going to look back on the election after deer season and was sent this observation of Prof. Laura Hollis of the University of Notre Dame. I couldn't have said it better. "I am already reading so many pundits and other talking heads analyzing the disaster that was this year's elections. I am adding my own ten cents. Here goes:

 1. We are outnumbered. We accurately foresaw the enthusiasm, the passion, the commitment, the determination, and the turnout. Married women, men, independents, Catholics, evangelicals - they all went for Romney in percentages as high or higher than the groups which voted for McCain in 2008. It wasn't enough. What we saw in the election on Tuesday was a tipping point: we are now at a place where there are legitimately fewer Americans who desire a free republic with a free people than there are those who think the government should give them stuff. There are fewer of us who believe in the value of free exchange and free enterprise. There are fewer of us who do not wish to demonize successful people in order to justify taking from them. We are outnumbered. For the moment. It's just that simple.

 2. It wasn't the candidate(s). Some are already saying, "Romney was the wrong guy"; "He should have picked Marco Rubio to get Florida/Rob Portman to get Ohio/Chris Christie to get [someplace else]." With all due respect, these assessments are incorrect. Romney ran a strategic and well-organized campaign. Yes, he could have hit harder on Benghazi. But for those who would have loved that, there are those who would have found it distasteful. No matter what tactic you could point to that Romney could have done better, it would have been spun in a way that was detrimental to his chances. Romney would have been an excellent president, and Ryan was an inspired choice. No matter who we ran this year, they would have lost. See #1, above.

 3. It's the culture, stupid. We have been trying to fight this battle every four years at the voting booth. It is long past time we admit that is not where the battle really is. We abdicated control of the culture - starting back in the 1960s. And now our largest primary social institutions - education, the media, Hollywood (entertainment) have become really
nothing more than an assembly line for cranking out reliable little Leftists. Furthermore, we have allowed the government to undermine the institutions that instill good character - marriage, the family, communities, schools, our churches. So, here we are, at least two full generations later - we are reaping what we have sown. It took nearly fifty years to get here; it will take another fifty years to get back. But it starts with the determination to reclaim education, the media, and the entertainment business. If we fail to do that, we can kiss every election goodbye from here on out. And much more.

 4. America has become a nation of adolescents The real loser in this election was adulthood: Maturity. Responsibility. The understanding that liberty must be accompanied by self-restraint. Obama is a spoiled child, and the behavior and language of his followers and their advertisements throughout the campaign makes it clear how many of them are, as well. Romney is a grown-up. Romney should have won. Those of us who expected him to win assumed that voters would act like grownups. Because if we were a nation of grownups, he would have won.

But what did win? Sex. Drugs. Bad language. Bad manners. Vulgarity. Lies. Cheating. Name-calling. Finger-pointing. Blaming. And irresponsible spending. This does not bode well. People grow up one of two ways: either they choose to, or circumstances force them to. The warnings are all there, whether it is the looming economic disaster, or the inability of the government to respond to crises like Hurricane Sandy, or the growing strength and brazenness of our enemies. American voters stick their fingers in their ears and say, "Lalalalalala, I can't hear you." It is unpleasant to think about the circumstances it will take to force Americans to grow up. It is even more unpleasant to think about Obama at the helm when those circumstances arrive.

 5. Yes, there is apparently a Vagina Vote. It's the subject matter of another column in its entirety to point out, one by one, all of the inconsistencies and hypocrisies of the Democrats this year. Suffice it to say that the only "war on women" was the one waged by the Obama campaign, which sexualized and objectified women, featuring them dressed up like vulvas at the Democrat National Convention, appealing to their "lady parts," comparing voting to losing your virginity with Obama, trumpeting the thrills of destroying our children in the womb (and using our daughters in commercials to do so), and making Catholics pay for their birth control. For a significant number of women, this was appealing. It might call into question the wisdom of the Nineteenth Amendment, but for the fact that large numbers of women (largely married) used their "lady smarts" instead. Either way, Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton are rolling over in their graves.

 6. It's not about giving up on "social issues" No Republican candidate should participate in a debate or go out on the stump without thorough debate prep and a complete set of talking points that they stick to. This should start with a good grounding in biology and a reluctance to purport to know the will of God. (Thank you, Todd and Richard.)

That said, we do not hold the values we do because they garner votes. We hold the values we do because we believe that they are time-tested principles without which a civilized, free and prosperous society is not possible.

We defend the unborn because we understand that a society which views some lives as expendable is capable of viewing all lives as expendable. We defend family - mothers, fathers, marriage, children - because history makes it quite clear that societies without intact families quickly descend into anarchy and barbarism, and we have plenty of proof of that in our inner cities where marriage is infrequent and unwed motherhood approaches 80 percent. When Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973, many thought that the abortion cause was lost. Forty years later, ultrasound technology has demonstrated the inevitable connection between science and morality. More Americans than ever define themselves as "pro-life." What is tragic is that tens of millions of children have lost their lives while Americans figure out what should have been obvious before. There is no "giving up" on social issues. There is only the realization that we have to fight the battle on other fronts. The truth will win out in the end.

 7. Obama does not have a mandate. And he does not need one. I have to laugh - bitterly - when I read conservative pundits trying to assure us that Obama "has to know" that he does not have a mandate, and so he will have to govern from the middle. I don't know what they're smoking. Obama does not care that he does not have a mandate. He does not view himself as being elected (much less re-elected) to represent individuals. He views himself as having been re-elected to complete the "fundamental transformation" of America, the basic structure of which he despises. Expect much more of the same - largely the complete disregard of the will of half the American public, his willingness to rule by executive order, and the utter inability of another divided Congress to rein him in. Stanley Kurtz has it all laid out here.

 8. The Corrupt Media - is the enemy too strong? I don't think so. I have been watching the media try to throw elections since at least the early 1990s. In 2008 and again this year, we saw the media cravenly cover up for the incompetence and deceit of this President, while demonizing a good, honorable and decent man with lies and smears. This is on top of the daily barrage of insults that conservatives (and by that I mean the electorate, not the politicians) must endure at the hands of this arrogant bunch of elitist snobs. Bias is one thing. What we observed with Benghazi was professional malpractice and fraud. They need to go. Republicans, Libertarians and other conservatives need to be prepared to play hardball with the Pravda press from here on out. And while we are at it, to defend those journalists of whatever political stripe (Jake Tapper, Sharyl Atkisson, Eli Lake) who actually do their jobs. As well as Fox News and talk radio. Because you can fully expect a re-elected Obama to try to reinstate the Fairness Doctrine in term 2.

 9. Small business and entrepreneurs will be hurt the worst For all the blather about "Wall Street versus Main Street," Obama's statist agenda will unquestionably benefit the biggest corporations which - as with the public sector unions - are in the best position to make campaign donations, hire lobbyists, and get special exemptions carved out from Obama's health care laws, his environmental regulations, his labor laws. It will be the small business, the entrepreneur, and the first-time innovators who will be crushed by their inability to compete on a level playing field.

 10. America is more polarized than ever; and this time it's personal. I've been following politics for a long time, and it feels different this time. Not just for me. I've received messages from other conservatives who are saying the same thing: there is little to no tolerance left out there for those who are bringing this country to its knees - even when they have been our friends. It isn't just about "my guy" versus "your guy." It is my view of America versus your view of America - a crippled, hemorrhaging, debt-laden, weakened and dependent America that I want no part of and resent being foisted on me. I no longer have any patience for stupidity, blindness, or vulgarity, so with each dumb "tweet" or FB post by one of my happily lefty comrades, another one bites the dust, for me. Delete. What does this portend for a divided Congress? I expect that Republicans will be demoralized and chastened for a short time. But I see them in a bad position. Americans in general want Congress to work together. But many do not want Obama's policies, and so Republicans who support them will be toast. Good luck, guys.

 11. It's possible that America just has to hit rock bottom. I truly believe that most Americans who voted for Obama have no idea what they are in for. Most simply believe him when he says that all he really wants is for the rich to pay "a little bit more." So reasonable! Who could argue with that except a greedy racist? America is on a horrific bender. Has been for some time now. The warning signs of our fiscal profligacy and culture of lack of personal responsibility are everywhere - too many to mention. We need only look at other countries which have gone the route we are walking now to see what is in store.

 For the past four years - but certainly within the past campaign season - we have tried to warn Americans. Too many refuse to listen, even when all of the events that have transpired during Obama's presidency - unemployment, economic stagnation, skyrocketing prices, the depression of the dollar, the collapse of foreign policy, Benghazi, hopelessly inept responses to natural disasters - can be tied directly to Obama's statist philosophies, and his decisions.

 What that means, I fear, is that they will not see what is coming until the whole thing collapses. That is what makes me so sad today. I see the country I love headed toward its own "rock bottom," and I cannot seem to reach those who are taking it there.

" Laura Hollis University of Notre Dame

Puzzled

I was puzzled about the low turnout for Reagan/Carter, the popular vote for Bush/Gore and the number of "undecideds" in this election. Moreover, I thought that the "undecideds" and the number who said they were not going to vote - and who didn't - spoke volumes. Census shows that historically 60 percent of the eligible population registers to vote and 80 percent of that number votes meaning that 25 percent of the eligible population has always determined elections in this country. Now lets analyze why anyone would vote for these democrats. Why would poor whites? Middle class whites? Upper class whites? Minorities? Women? Jews? Even Catholics? As to minorities, it speaks volumes that in the south, the democratic party is basically black with the southern congressional delegation being 50 percent black. It is also interesting that the first democratic Cuban American was elected to congress from Florida meaning that younger cuban Americans are trending democrat. Yes all those minorities have strong beliefs that are aligned with republicans and not democrats. However, each one votes democrat because they feel that the republicans are hostile to them - not to their beliefs - but to them. Laissez-faire does not appeal to them because laissez-faire and states rights have historically meant that white majorities have trampled the rights of minorities. I would have not gone to Georgia without federal intervention. Yes what Georgia was doing was unconstitutional and the federal government must impose obedience of the constitution upon the states. However, it is difficult for the historically discriminated against to be for a smaller less intrusive federal government because left to their own devices, the majority have ruled in their own self interest to the detriment of the rest of us.

Random thoughts

Who did David Patreus think he was ? Bill Clinton? Just in case you missed it, one of the best observers of America is the Economist. Read the following and you wonder why they endorsed Obama. But their observations are on point. I am certain I wasn’t the only one to wonder how the republicans could blow the senate races – every single one of them. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21565955-budget-deal-makes-sense-re-elected-president-his-opponents-his-country-and?fsrc=scn/tw/te/hugarepublican If Obama repeats himself we are going to be into difficult times. However, if he embraces Simpson-Bowles, oks the Keystone pipeline, does not raise taxes on small businesses and exempts them from some onerous regs, then there is a likelihood that we may get through the next 4 years intact as a country. Given the voting patterns, if Obama remains stubborn and arrogant then there is a strong possibility of a serious movement toward secession with the rest of the states jettisoning the cities along with the west coast and the northeast. There is no logical reason why this country should remain unscathed from geographic reorganization. At least I live in two states aligned with my political views. However, I will miss Ohio and (most of) Virginia.

Stunning

I was wrong. Barack Obama is not a one term president and was rewarded by the American voter for four more years. Go figure. No leadership on any issue. Disastrous foreign and domestic policies. Hostility toward business. High gas prices. High unemployment. Class warfare. Running on a platform of increased taxes. Amnesty for illegals. Benghazi. Fast and Furious. You name it. Not a single accomplishment. Yet all the so-called battleground states: Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Paul Ryan's Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania (with its beleaguered coal industry) voted for Obama. He is also leading in Florida despite cutting medicare benefits. Also Mia Love lost in Utah. The senate will be more liberal with Elizabeth Warren beating Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Tammy Baldwin beating Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin and Tim Kaine beating George Allen in Virginia. Moreover, the democrats won senate seats in Missouri and Indiana where the republicans both decided to commit political suicide with dumb comments on rape. So Obamacare will come fully on board, the EPA will run roughshod on energy producers and will backdoor cap and trade, Eric Holder is still at "Justice", the debt will run up to $20 trillion, get ready for the fiscal cliff - which Obama actually wants, the Fed will continue to devalue the dollar and tempt the inflation gods. If there is any bright spot it is that given time American business will figure out how to deal with this environment and will adapt. However that will likely mean high levels of unemployment as less labor will be utilized. All in all it is clear that the country will be fundamentally different going forward. For Barack Obama this is mission accomplished. As for me, I am going to take a break and go deer hunting until the season ends in January.

Fed needs new leadership

Knoxville News-Sentinel November 4, 2012 Regardless of who wins the presidency it is rumored that when his term as Fed chairman expires in 2014, Ben Bernanke will not be reappointed. This is no surprise if Romney wins. However, it is somewhat of a surprise if Obama is re-elected. This is because Bernanke has been the most accommodating Fed chairman in history. Under Bernanke, the Fed has purchased billions in Treasurys allowing the administration to spend without a budget constraint. One would think that Obama would welcome the continuation of what has been - to him - a wonderful relationship. On the other hand, Romney would certainly be delighted if Bernanke decided to exit even earlier, say January 2013. However, regardless of what Bernanke decides, a President Romney would be left with a Federal Reserve Board comprised of governors all appointed by President Obama. Even though the chairman gets the majority of the publicity, all the governors sit on the Open Market Committee that makes the decisions regarding monetary policy. This Board of Governors has been unanimous in its support of Bernanke in keeping long term interest rates artificially low. Thus, a Romney appointed chairman may encounter a recalcitrant group of fellow governors and find it difficult to reach a consensus if a change in policy were desired. Nonetheless, Fed policy even under Bernanke has been a contradiction. Through the expansion of its balance sheet by purchasing Treasurys in QE1 and QE2 and the purchase of mortgage backed securities in QE3, the Fed has dramatically increased the amount of excess reserves held in the banking system. Normally, these reserves would be loaned out, creating money. The result would be highly inflationary. That the banks are not lending the reserves and not creating money are a product of two disparate forces. The first is the Fed is paying 0.25 percent interest on the excess reserves. That amount is about what a two year Treasury earns, so the banks can hold the reserves and earn interest without incurring any default risk. Bernanke has indicated that this is how the Fed can ward off inflation. By manipulating the interest it pays on reserves it can induce the banks not to lend. However, by paying interest on reserves, the Fed is acting counter to its own stated policy - that of stimulating economic growth. Indeed, if you take out the increase in the government sector, overall economic growth during the Obama years has been negative. Coupled with the Fed seemingly driving the economy with its foot on both the accelerator and the brake are the actions of the Fed, the FDIC and the Comptroller of the Currency as bank regulators. All are still smarting over being accused of lax regulatory oversight precipitating the financial crisis. As a result all are now being heavy handed resulting in a tightening of loan standards drying up funding to businesses and individuals. So while the Fed is saying that it is pursuing expansionary monetary policy through its purchases of long term securities it is also not allowing the economy to expand. It would be a welcomed change to see a coherent Federal Reserve policy. Therefore, it will be a welcomed sight to see Bernanke leave.

Ghosts of Ole Miss

I had never watched ESPNs 30 for 30 but watched the one “Ghosts of Ole Miss.” It told the story of the only undefeated Ole Miss team of 1962 juxtaposed with the integration of the school by James Meredith. It was a powerful story only marred by its telling. Too much time was spent on the story teller than on the story itself – but perhaps this is the style of the series. One lasting impression is the strength and courage of Meredith especially in light of the demonic evilness of the students interviewed. I enrolled in Georgia the exact same quarter that Meredith went to Ole Miss. I actually sent him a note telling him to stay strong. I never got an answer but he may have never gotten it. I remember growing up and hearing “you think Georgia is bad? You should be thankful you are not in Mississippi.” So true. The film revisited the deaths of Emmitt Till and Chaney, Goodman and Schwerner. The whites interviewed said “They deserved it.” No remorse there. Compared to Meredith, we seven blacks at Georgia had a walk in the park. Yes. Thank goodness we were not in Mississippi. The story then told of ridding the Ole Miss football games of all the confederate paraphernalia. Curiously it told of the first black cheerleader who in 1982 refused to carry the confederate flag but it neglected to mention the first black football player. I know all about this experience much too well. When I went to Georgia, the cheerleaders carried confederate flags as did most of the fans. The band was call the Dixie Red Coat Marching Band and played Dixie after the national anthem. We sat down and were pelted with stuff and yelled at until the dean of students showed up and started collecting IDs. Unlike Meredith, we went to every game and at every game we were called every name imaginable. Today no vestiges of the confederacy remains at UGA games – even the flags are gone from the tailgate. I wonder if the same is true at Ole Miss. The film also talked about the tribute to the 1962 team 50 years later and mentioned that Meredith was in the chancellor’s box. But it did not mention if any tribute was paid to Meredith. Curiously, there was a scene in which there was shown a statue of Meredith on the Ole Miss campus but not a word about it. Lastly, the best part of the film was the interview with Meredith himself. Clad in all white, he looked the part of a gentleman planter. He was still full of confidence and self assurance. Perhaps few people in history has had so great an impact on fundamentally changing a culture, a way of life and introducing so many in an entire state to the human race.

A recent speech on the economy

Speech to the Tennessee Bankers Association Meeting Nashville, TN October 24, 2012 The Economic Outlook I do not need to tell you that the economy stinks. How bad is it? Absent the government sector, negative real economic growth of -0.3 percent. That means that this is the first president other than Hoover with negative growth during his first four years. Yes, the president has a point when he says that he inherited a bad economy. With George Bush the economy grew 6.6 percent. But the president’s policies made it worse. His antibusiness agenda, refusal to compromise by adopting Simpson-Bowles and the Keystone pipeline along with his desire for tax increases and health care are only the tip of the iceberg. Federal spending is now 24% of GDP and growing. Traditionally it is 20 percent. Middle class incomes have fallen by $4,520. Health care premiums increased by $3,000. Only a blind party loyalist would want four more years of this. Regardless of who gets elected, there is the so-called "fiscal cliff” looming where we have tax hikes and spending cuts of nearly $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect at the end of the year. • Payroll tax cut benefiting 160 million workers is scheduled to expire at the end of the year (taking away $1,000 for the average family) • increase in the taxes of $1.7 trillion under Obamacare • A typical middle-income family making $40,000 to $64,000 a year could see its taxes go up by $2,000 next year if lawmakers fail to renew a lengthy roster of tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year, according to a new report. • Taxpayers across the income spectrum would be hit with large tax hikes, the Tax Policy Center said in its study Monday, with households in the top 1 percent income range seeing an average tax increase of more than $120,000, while a family making between $110,000 to $140,000 could see a tax hike in the $6,000 range. • The increases would total more than $500 billion -- a more than 20 percent increase -- with nine out of 10 households being affected by the expiration of tax cuts. • Taxes would rise by more than $500 billion in 2013 -- an average of almost $3,500 per household. • $109 billion in automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect in January Cumulatively, the country would see a 5 percentage point jump in its average tax rate, which works out to taxes on the top 1 percent jumping by more than 7 percentage points and about 4 percentage points for most people earning below $100,000 a year. Put another way, people in the $40,000-$64,000 income range would see their average federal tax rate jump from 14 percent to 17.8 percent -- or an increase in their overall federal bill of 27 percent. All told, almost 90 percent of all households would face a tax increase, though the top 20 percent of earners would bear 60 percent of the overall cost. Across all households the tax increases would average almost $3,500. The new top rate of 39.6 percent would kick in for income over $397,000. The current top rate is 35 percent rate. What will this portend for the economy? The Congressional Budget Office said in August that this would cause a 0.5 percent contraction in gross domestic product next year, triggering a recession. If postponed the consensus of business economists is that the U.S. economy will likely expand 2.4 percent next year, up from projected growth of 1.9 percent in 2012. The Federal Reserve analysts projected that the unemployment rate would stay near 8 percent through 2014 having downgraded its forecast. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said "I suspect that the fiscal issues may be part of that." I suspect that he may be right in the short run. But in the longer run, the irresponsible disregard of the Fed for the value of the dollar may be more significant. Regardless, if Romney is elected - sell your gold.